new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby jamesWtc on Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:43 pm

What about a linear representation? It is still comparatively easier to comprehend.

This is my understanding of the 4 scenarios... with relation to network structure in Block 1.

struct.jpg
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Dave H on Mon Apr 12, 2010 6:00 pm

I consider that the possible ideas I suggested contain varying numbers of unknowns and a large number of varibles so it is fairly unlikely that any realistic scenarios will evolve. However in spite of this uncertainty I feel that these issues need exploring so that we have a better understanding of them..

Also with the first two there a number of different mind-sets, behaviours and politics that could be involved. An example is does the State enforce a different measure of economic activity to GDP or does it come bottom-up from the people. What is the difference in the end result between the two approaches and there are many other examples of such differences that could be included.
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby jim_lewis1 on Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:44 am

I like the idea of plotting the ideas in a space with axes, I'm not sure I agree with James axes that adaptability and efficiency are opposite extremes on a continuum, or that Mad Max represents high resiliency though.

I found the original four models at least seemed to represent the four alternatives emerging from bottom up/top down, sustainable/unsustainable* (*or ecologically aware/ecologically ignorant), perhpas our first task is to identify what the to axes of the space are and then define models based on this.
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Teiana on Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:53 am

so what do we have as the basic ideas that the scenarios are going to be measured on?

resilience ? - ability of the situation to flex with circumstances and 'survive'?

amount of individual accountability ? - relative position on a scale from 'individual completely controlled by collective' to 'individuals all acting independently' (to what extent does the individual support the system?)

amount of individual support ? - as above but security/protection... to what extent does the system support the individual?

what else?
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby jim_lewis1 on Tue Apr 13, 2010 8:14 am

sustainability?

technological compexity?

dependence on fossil fuels?
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Teiana on Tue Apr 13, 2010 10:37 am

level of education?
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Andrea on Tue Apr 13, 2010 11:39 am

jamesWtc wrote:This is my understanding of the 4 scenarios... with relation to network structure in Block 1.


So interesting to see how we've both developed exactly the same system architectures for the four scenarios -- that's exactly how I've been sketching the distinct structures.

The Star Trek (individualistic), Big Government (hierarchical), Mad Max (anarchic) structures are absolutely fine in that they can be represented as a fractal model i.e. they always have the same architecture at whatever scale you look at. In order to introduce the fractal nature to the ecotopian (egalitarian) network, I would suggest the following slight modifications:

egalitarian network.jpg
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The central "representative" node is always linked to other "representative" nodes at that scale, which in turn are linked to a higher level node providing representation at that higher scale. I think this architecture is a decent visual model of the idea of "subsidiarity" i.e. that decisions should always be made at the appropriate scale but with the support of lower units of decision-making.
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Teiana on Tue Apr 13, 2010 12:19 pm

i think the quality of being a fractal is a good indicator of whether the scenario 'works'. I think the demonstrable on all scales thing shows that it's a good model. Though i'm not entirely sure why i feel like that - i am wondering if it's just a weird assumption on my part because it 'feels neat'..
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Andrea on Tue Apr 13, 2010 12:22 pm

jim_lewis1 wrote:I like the idea of plotting the ideas in a space with axes, I'm not sure I agree with James axes that adaptability and efficiency are opposite extremes on a continuum, or that Mad Max represents high resiliency though.


Yes, plotting against axes is a very useful way of communicating differences, and we don't necessarily just have to stick to 2 particular labels.

I think James, on the other hand, is trying to do too many things at the same time. There is the concept of "change over time" and cycling between different stages, which can be plotted as a trajectory with the x-axis representing 'time'. I've seen the Y axis sometimes representing "level of organisational complexity".

But there are also a series of plots which could be used to highlight the conceptual differences between scenarios. For example, this is the way Michael Thompson depicts the four scenarios:

grid-group.jpg
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Re: new futuristic scenarios for Block 2?

Postby Andrea on Tue Apr 13, 2010 12:41 pm

Teiana wrote:so what do we have as the basic ideas that the scenarios are going to be measured on?

resilience ? - ability of the situation to flex with circumstances and 'survive'?

amount of individual accountability ? - relative position on a scale from 'individual completely controlled by collective' to 'individuals all acting independently' (to what extent does the individual support the system?)

amount of individual support ? - as above but security/protection... to what extent does the system support the individual?

what else?


I think the underlying criteria that differentiate the scenarios have to have their roots in quite abstract concepts, rather than specific cases such as availability of oil.

I would probably go for something along Teiana's suggestions. Other gradients may include:

1) non-hierarchical (vs hierarchical)
2) participatory (vs witnessing)
3) emergent (vs planned)
4) open (vs closed)
5) non-owned (vs owned)

[Source: http://www.alcatraz.nu/Pioneer_Imprints ... emium.html ]



If you look at the examples quoted in the book which I refer to, these gradients can be applied to software (Windows versus linux); online applications (Oxford dictionary versus Wikipedia) and social organisations (UN versus transition towns).

In terms of how things would turn out in the future, we can start playing around with a society dominated by:

-- Windows; the Oxford dictionary; the United Nations

Or

-- linux; Wikipedia; transition towns
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